Posted in: Fundamental analysis

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

Global Market Overview March 21 2016

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Macro Global View|21 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

Global macro overview for 21/03/2016: For this week there are still some important pieces of economic data that is due out, with a particular focus on the UK fundamental data release. This week should be quieter mainly because of the upcoming Easter Bank Holiday. Nevertheless, the inflation data on Tuesday and the retail sales figures on Thursday will be watched closely by the Bank of England mainly due to the 2% inflation projection level for 2016. In conclusion, the weak data might initiate the assistance program from the BoE, despite the recent remarks made by Mark Carney. He said that the next central bank move would be more likely to increase the interest rate than to decrease it. Let’s now take a look at the technical picture of the GBP/USD pair at the daily time frame. The market has broken through the golden trend line and currently it is testing it. Moreover, it is trading just below the important support at the level of 1.4438 so the bulls are in complete control overt this market. Only a sustained break out below the level of 1.4051 would change the situation in favor for bears.

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

In the USA, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 90.0 points in March, down 1.7 points from a month before. According to the report, this unexpected worsening in sentiment was caused by concerns of increasing petrol prices and mounting expenses. Moreover, another important fact is the employment situation and wages: the number of employed people is increasing steadily, but there is no chance for any increase in salaries and wages. In conclusion, the current situation is deteriorating compared to 2000 when the confidence index reached its all-time high at 112.

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

global market overview March 21 2016|101trading.co.uk

Let’s now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the daily time frame. The bears seem to be in complete control over this market as the price is trading below the 21.50 and the 100 daily moving averages. Moreover, the price has recently broken below the important technical support at the level of 95.25 and currently the bears are testing this level from below. Any failure here would mean further price decrease towards the next support at the level of 94.05.

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

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global macro 18 march2| 101trading.co.uk

Macro Global View|18 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

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Macro Global View|18 March 2016 | 101trading.co.uk

global macro 18 march2| 101trading.co.uk

global macro 18 march2| 101trading.co.uk

Global macro overview for 18/03/2016: Yesterday, the Bank of England left the interest rate on hold at the level of 0.50%, together with unchanged asset purchase facility at the level of 375B pounds.

 

The BoE members voted unanimously 9 to 0 in favor of unchanged interest rates. It was the second month in a row when policy makers were unequivocal on the decision, after Ian McCafferty abandoned his rate hike vote in February referring to a weaker outlook for wages. Moreover, according to the

 

Monetary Policy Committee meeting minutes, despite the global headwinds, policy members are still convinced that in the near future interest rates should be increased, not decreased, so negative interest rates are not taken into account currently. There is one more thing worth of noting here: uncertainty over the outcome may result in slowing the economy during months ahead of the vote, the BoE policy members said. In conclusion,

 

The BoE meeting minutes mark the first time when officials have explicitly expressed their concerns over looming referendum risks acting as a further drag on growth amid already challenging global environment. Let us now take a look at the daily time frame of the GBP/USD pair.

 

The market has clearly broken out above the golden trend line and now is trying to extend the bullish momentum even further by testing the recent swing high at the level of 1.4668. The next resistance is seen at the level of 1.4578 and the next support is seen at the level of 1.4438.

Global macro overview for 18/03/2016 Part two:

Despite the expanded stimulus program from the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank kept the interest rates on hold at the level of -0.75%, together with 3-Month Libor lower and upper target ranges at the levels of -1,25% and -0,25%, respectively.

This decision might have very negative consequences because the ECB “bazooka program” launched this Wednesday may eventually put the Swiss currency under upward pressure versus the euro.

In conclusion, the extended period of negative interest rates might weaken the demand for the franc by making it less attractive for investors from overseas. Even if negative rates are also intended to support economic growth by encouraging banks to lend more to consumers and businesses, the recent extension of QE program from the ECB might be more damaging than helping the Swiss economy in the longer run.

Let us now take a look at the EUR/CHF daily time frame. We can see a steady rise of the market after the peg removal event over a year ago. Currently, it looks like the market will be continuing its slow uptrend towards the 1.2000 level as long as the golden trend line is not violated. The next resistance for bulls is seen at the level of 1.1048 and the next support is seen at the level of 1.0808.

global macro 18 march1 |101trading.co.uk

global macro 18 march1 |101trading.co.uk

 

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

Sebastian Seliga |instaforex.com |101trading.co.uk

 

 

fundamental analysis on commodities

Fundamental analysis on commodities

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Fundamental Analysis on commodities

There are types on fundamental analysis that we used here at 101trading. The first one is fundamental analysis on shares/stocks, the second one is fundamental analysis on forex and in this article we are going to discuss the fundamental analysis on commodities. In this article you will learn what a fundamental analysis on commodities is and you will learn on how to apply it for your trading.

What is a fundamental analysis on commodities?

A fundamental analysis on commodities is a analysis that is focused on the factors that have impact on the supply or demand side of a commodity. With the fundamental analysis on commodities traders and investors can try to predict of what the price of a commodity will be like in the future.

Fundamental analysis on commodities: factors that can influence the demand size

When are you are doing a fundamental analysis on commodities one of the first thing that you should be checking is the demand side of that commodity. For many commodities the general rule is that when the economy of countries are growing the demand side for commodities will grow as well. And because of that the demand side will grow faster then the supply side of the commodity. In this case the supply can not meet up with the demand so the producer will sell its commodity to the highest bidder. So in general when the demand keeps growing and the supply side stay still, the prices for commodities will increase.

What are the factors that can influence the demand size of a commodity?

There are many factors that can influence the demand side of commodities. In this article we are going to discuss the three major factors that can have influences on the demand for commodities.

Price

Price is one of the factors that has influence on the demand side of a commodity. The general thumb rule is that when the prizes of a commodity decreases the demand will increase. Its simple economics. For example if the gas price is £ 1,- per litre, you would use gas more then if the gas price was £3,- per litre. The cheaper it is to more you will use.

Economic growth

Economic growth has a impact on the demand side of the commodity as well. If they economy is growing as expected or better then expected the price of commodities will grow in value. However if the economy is growing slower then expected the price of commodities will go down. As you may guess if there is no economy growth in the present or in the future the value of a commodities will go down.

Politicians and central banks

Politicians and central banks are the ones that creates policies that should support the economy of their country. Sometimes it works well and sometimes it doesn’t. Although it may take a while before the policies get implemented the markets usually reacts first. Causing either a increase or decrease in demand.

What are the factors that can influence the supply side of a commodity?

Price

While a decrease in price creates a increase in the demand. The decrease in price of commodities has a other effect on supply. If the prices of commodities decrease  the supply will decrease as well under normal circumstances. The reason for that is that it doesn’t makes any sense for a producer to produce a lot of commodities for a low price. When the prices of commodities increases the supply will increase as well under normal circumstances. A high price is attractive for a producer to produce a lot of commodities as he can earn more money.

Economic growth

A increase in economic growth leads to a higher demand which results in a higher price for commodities. And as you know by now a high price for commodities will increase the supply of commodities. When the economic growth is below expectations the demand will decrease which leads to a lower price of commodities. As you know a lower price in commodities equals a smaller supply of commodities.

Politicians and central banks

Politicians and central banks are the ones that creates policies that should support the economy of their country. Sometimes it works well and sometimes it doesn’t. Although it may take a while before the policies get implemented the producers usually watch from the sideline what effects it has on the prices and prepare measurements to take when it is needed. Causing either a increase or decrease in supply.

How to make money with fundamental analysis on commodities?

The first thing in making money with fundamental analysis on commodities is to understand the factors that have influences on the demand and supply of commodities. The second thing on the fundamental analysis on commodities is to remember these two formula’s:

1. When the demand is bigger then the supply = a increase in prices of commodities

2. When the supply is bigger then the demand = a increase in prices of commodities

The third thing that you need know is that when the prices of commodities are too low , the producers will shrink the supply so that the demand is bigger then supply again which will lead into a increase of prices for commodities. When you hear that the producers are announcing that they will shrink the supply then you will know that a bullish trend is coming for the commodities. As a trader and investor you can make money by going long.

The opposite will happen when the producers are announcing that they are going to increase the supply. The prices of commodities in this case will go down. You as a trader and investor can make a huge profit by going short.

If you want to make money in commodities, you can open a demo account here: commodity demo trading account or open a real account here: trading commodities with a small budget

facebooks-notify news app

Facebook Notify news app: Will it succeed?

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Facebook Notify News app

On the 4th of November Facebook announced that they will roll out a new app. The name of this app is Notify. In this blog you will get to know what this Notify app does , what its revenue model is and discover wether the Facebook Notify news app will be a successful or not.

What is Facebook Notify news app? And what does it do?

So what is this Facebook Notify news app? Well basically it’s an app where the users can subscribe to a certain publisher. When a publisher published news, new content, new video ect. the user will receive a notification that something has been published. For example:

Let’s say you have subscribed to a organisation that publish content about trading the stock market. Whenever this organisation publish a new blog about trading the stock the stock market, the Facebook notify news app will notify you about it. This way you don’t have to worry about missing out or reading the news too late.

What is the revenue model of Facebook Notify news app?

At the moment this not very clearly. But we can assume that the revenue will be like at the one from Facebook Instant articles. Where Facebook share 30% of the advertising revenue to it publishers. Which means that they will keep 70% of the revenue to themselves.

Will Facebook Notify news app be a succes?

This a great question. There is a good chance that Facebook Notify news app will succeed. As there appears to be a market for news app. Early this year Snapchat , Twitter and Apple have launched a news app. Yes even Apple has launched a news app and it is a succes as it already has 40 million readers. And the fun thing about the Apple news is that it is only available in a few countries. Its not worldwide yet.

Another reason why Facebook Notify news app could be a succes is that Facebook Notify News app is a evolution of Facebook Instant articles where publishers are happy with Facebook. Its one of the reason why big news companies such as the BBC, Vogue, Washington Post and CBS have joined Facebook in the Facebook Notify news app.

Content on Facebook Notify news app wont be a problem and finding advertisers for to advertising won’t be a problem either for Facebook. The only challenge that Facebook is engaging and getting new users to use the Facebook Notify news app on their mobile phone. Facebook has been successful at attracting new users to the Facebook app and it’s messengers app. But it had failed with establishing stand alone apps. Especially the ones that were focused on the young audience. Apps such as Poke and Slingshot had failed to get a substantial users.

The reason why Facebook Notify news app will succeed in getting users more then at Poke and Slingshot is that it has well known Publishers such as the BBC , Times, Washington Post, Mashable ect. that will publish content on Notify. These well know media company are known for publishing good quality of content and sure it will draw some its readers database to use Facebook Notify news app.

Facebook Notify news app is basically another app where Facebook can gain a new audience for advertisers. The bigger the crowd the more advertisers Facebook will have which leads into a increase in revenue and profits. If Facebook is indeed to launch its Notify app next week. Then we might see in the next quarterly report if this Facebook Notify news app is a succes or not.

Facebook share price forecast q3: Bullish or Bearish on?

Facebook share price forecast q3: Bullish or Bearish on?

Ever wanted to make money whenever and wherever you want? Start trading now and receive a 25 dollar welcome bonus

Hi all,

In today’s blog we are going to share our Facebook share price forecast q3. In a few  hours Facebook will announce their earnings. Will the earnings of Facebook beat the expectations of Wall Street? If Facebook does manage to beat the expectations then the share price will probably continue to go up. If it meets up with the expectations of Wall Street then it might go down a little bit. And if the earnings of Facebook is lower then what Wall Street expected, the share price of Facebook will drop significantly.

Facebook share price forecast q3: What happend on q2?

So what happened the last time when Facebook announced their 2nd quarterly result this year? Well their earnings of the second quarter beat the expectations of Wall Street. As the result of that outcome the share price of Facebook started to increase until the Chinese stock market started to crash and took the world wide stock market down with it. When the worries about the Chinese market stopped, the US and European markets started to grow again and so did Facebook.

What are the Wall Street expectations this time?

Facebook share price forecast q3: According to a note from Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Youssef Squali, Wall Street is expecting Facebook’s ad revenue to have grown 41.2% year-over-year in Q3 to $4.176 billion, representing a growth path that is nearly three times faster than the overall ad market, but also marking a deceleration from 43% growth in the prior quarter. The company’s mobile ad revenue is expected to rise to nearly 80% ($3.338 billion) from 76% in the prior quarter and “virtually zero” in early 2012, according to that note.

Industry analysts also speculate that Facebook could show its monthly active user (MAU) base grew 13.4% year-over-year to 1.531 billion and an engagement of daily active user (DAU) to MAU reading of 0.651, which would be consistent with prior quarters.
Read more: //www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/15/11/5961092/wall-street-expectations-running-high-for-facebooks-q3-earnings#ixzz3qYLMH87q

The expectations for Facebook share price forecast seems to be high this time. I think it would be tough to beat  but I must take note that Facebook is putting effort to gain the engagement for the their platform users and at the same time they working on creating new services for their customers. So there is a good chance that their monthly total active users will be bigger then what most experts thinks.

Our Facebook share price forecast q3

When you look at the graph of Facebook. You will see that they have been going up steady since end of Augustus.

facebook share price forecast q3

facebook share price forecast q3

In our Facebook share price forecast q3 we think that only way that the share price of Facebook can go up is when they beat the Wall Streat expectations big time and it go up to 120 dollars a share by the end of this year. However Andreesen , a director of Facebook has been selling 15% of his stake in Facebook which could signalling that Facebook 3th quatar is not going to be spectacular. If that happens you can be sure that Facebook share price will go into a down trend.

Trading Oppertunity

To put it bluntly our Facebook share price forecast q3 says that no matter what outcome of the earnings will be Facebook will gives us trader a good opportunity to trade long or bearish for at least 3-4 work days. The chances on a sideway movement seems to be small. The reason for that is that the share price of Facebook have been growing steady already. So even when Facebook results meets with the expectations of Wall Street I think the share price will drop in value for 2 days.

I wish everybody a good profit with trading

Starbucks shares : Good Longterm investment or not?

Starbucks shares: A good long-term investment?

Start trading now to receive a 20 pounds welcome bonus!

Starbucks is one the company shares that I have in my own portfolio. I have bought the shares in 2014 for a price of 64 dollar per share. And then in April 2015 Starbucks did a stock split at a stock price of $95.23. So instead of having one Starbucks stock I have now two Starbucks shares. At the moment of writing this blog the Starbucks share has a current value of $52 dollar. So my return is pretty nice so far. My plan for the Starbucks shares is really simple: buy and hold. In this blog you will read my analysis that I have done before I started to invest in Starbucks shares.

 

Starbucks Shares Internal Analysis

The first thing that I do when I look for a company to invest in is to look at their history. Who are the founder(s) and are they still active in the company? Then I look at the management team and their skills on executing the companies plan.

You can judge the skill of the CEO and his management team by checking out the company quarterly results. A good CEO and a good management team has a quarterly results that often meets the expectations of analysts. A super good CEO and a super good management team often delivers quarterly results that surpass the expectations of the analysts and their shareholders. And my dear friend Starbucks has that super good CEO and a super good management team. For this year 2015 their first quarterly results and second quarterly results already surpass the expectations of most analysts.

 

On 23th April 2015 Starbucks announced record revenue of 4.6 Billion dollars!

When companies produce those kinds of results then you know your investment will be profitable for sure.

Start Trading Starbucks CFD Shares Now and receive a nice welcome bonus. Small investment with huge gains

 

Starbucks Shares External Analysis

Your successful investment doesn’t rely only on the internal analysis of company but also on the external analysis. How does the company attain new customers and retaining them? How does the company perform compare to his competitors? How does the company deals with threats?

Let’s answer these questions.

  1. How does the company attain new customers and retaining them?

Starbucks gets most of their new customers by opening more stores worldwide. In the second quarter of 2015 Starbucks have opened 210 new stores worldwide. Another way of how Starbucks attracts new customer is by selling their products not only online but also in supermarkets.

  1. How does Starbucks retain their customers?

Starbucks offers good products that meet the needs of their customers and they also provide good services to their customers through their Barista’s. Believe it or not Starbucks even has membership offers for their customers. Their membership program My Starbucks Reward has been so successful that in the second quarter 2015 1.3 million new members have signed up!

Starbucks now has over 10 million members in their membership program. Can you imagine a membership for coffee? Well Starbucks have pulled that off and not only that more members are signing up everyday.

  1. How does the company perform compared to his competitors?

Starbucks is beating their competitors; almost in every market Starbuck is the market leader.

  1. How do Starbucks deals with threats?

In my opinion Starbucks have been dealing with threats quite well I believe. For example last year in 2014, there was a commotion that Starbucks coffee was more expensive in China then in the US. The Chinese consumers were not happy about that and some of them threaten to boycott Starbucks. As a result of that commotion Starbucks shares began to drop in price at the stock market. Just in a few days Starbucks fixed the commotion by showing the Chinese consumers that the cost price for Starbucks was a lot higher in China then in the US. And so price of the Starbucks shares went up again

 

Conclusion

As long Starbucks keeps doing well in my analysis then there is no reason for me to sell the Starbucks shares only to buy more. For short term there a good possibilities to make money from Starbucks as there will be always fluctuations. Make sure to benefit from those fluctuations

 

 

 

online stocks trading profit

Online Stocks Trading in CTRIP: 1019 euro Profit

Ever wanted to make money whenever and wherever you want? Start trading now and receive a 25 dollar welcome bonus

By trading stocks online in a smart way, we made 1019 euro profit yesterday. In this article we will introduce you to trading smart in stocks by explaining it with a real example.  After reading this article you can start trading too.

Online stocks trading: how did we make  a profit?

Trading in CFD is not only about luck. Using a strategy would up your chances by a lot to profit. Yesterday we found a good stock to trade: CTRIP, we opened a buy position (long) at stock price 65.70 and closed it at price 74.34, which made us a profit of 1019 euro with 400 euro. So how did we do this?

CTRIP1

online stocks trading profit

Step 1. Find a reason to trade

The first and most important step in online stocks trading is to find yourself a motive to trade. So why did we choose CTRIP? First of all, we knew that it’s quarterly report was going to be released and whenever news like that comes out, a stock has super high volatility. We also found out that this news was going to be positive. How? We read about the company, we did a simple Google search. CTRIP is a Chinese online travel agency for booking flights, hotels and trains. So we found out that CTRIP is a online technology company and by watching the economic news we know that technology companies are doing well in these times. We then went to the investors page of the company (every stock company has one) to read the latest news and the previous quarterly report and did a quick analysis. All was positive. This has made us decide to open a buy (long) position on CTRIP, because we expected that the newest quarterly report would also be positive. This means we think that the stock price will increase after report release.

Trading with positive or negative news is what you call ‘Fundamental Analysis‘. Read more about how to use fundamental analysis to profit at this page.

 

Step 2. Opening and closing a position

After reading about the company we also found out when this report was going to come out. It turns out that it would come out after-market. This means after market close. In the online stocks trading world observation is one of the most important thing that all traders must do before entering the market. So we decided to watch the position all day and find the perfect time to open a buy position. We decided to open a buy position right before market close with 400 euro when the stock price was at a low price. We deposited the money, not more and not less, because we don’t want to lose more than we deposited.

After market close the news of the quarterly report came out and it turned out to be, like expected, positive. During the night we could see that the after market price was rising over 10%. This means a big win! At market open, the next day, the price rose around 13%, we decided to wait till market open and close the position as quickly as possible, because whenever a price is rising that much there could be a big sell off, which results in stock price decrease. So after the market opened, we closed the position immediately to lock the profit and gained ourselves 1019 euro profit.

CTRIP1

online stocks trading profit

 

CFD’s: Trade with a small deposit like a big trader

How did we make so much money with only 400 euro in online stocks trading? Well, we traded in CFD stocks, which gave us a leverage of 1:20. With leverage you can trade with a small deposit as a big trader. This meant for us: trading with 400 euro was actually worth 400 * 20 = 8000 euros. So we could trade 8000 euro worth of stocks with only 400 euro, which means we can profit 20 times more than our deposit, but we cannot lose more than our deposit. Which is awesome, but only when you use the right strategy.

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Plus500: Trading in CFD’s with a leverage of 1:20. Open a free account here.

 

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Markets.com: Trading in CFD’s with a leverage up to 1:20. Open a free account here.

 

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Step 3. Evaluate the result

In the online stocks trading world it is important to evaluate your trade after closing a position. Write it down in your plan, tell the document what you did and why you did it, because that is the only way to learn from your profits and also mistakes. This way you can adjust your strategy until you find one that fits you the best.

 

So in short…

 

Guide-to-profit

online stocks trading profit